Part III
Thought on 702010
The 702010 framework for development stands as strong as
ever, and some startups even take it as their core principle. That’s
heartwarming for a company whose research gave birth to this model of
development. (For a recap of what that research was please read The
Origins of 702010.)
If I can take a historic perspective on learning technology:
it started by supporting the 10% of formal training in the form of content
delivery and learning management systems to automate learning administration
and delivery. Then we saw the emergence of social technology in the form of
discussion boards, social networks or messaging apps that can help out with the
20% of learning through crucial relationships. It is now that we start seeing
the first signs of technology like wearables, AI and mobile technology that is
ready to scale at the 70% of learning through challenging work. It is an area
we just couldn’t do so much about before but that is about to change.
One interesting side-note is that CCL’s original research on
702010 actually disclosed 5 areas, not just 3. One category that was discarded because
you can’t or shouldn’t control for that in a developmental setting is ‘hardships’,
which means learning through tough experiences or unfortunate events. But there
is actually development going on in that area: just think of military-style
bootcamps, or the deliberate shouting and deprivation at CIMBA’s neuro-leadership courses.
Thought on trends
One of our visits was to the Institute for the Future
(IFTF.org) in Palo Alto. They specialize in disruption (defined as breaks in
the current pattern) and 10 year out forecasts. Core predictions include an
explosively connected world, distributed everything and increase of disruption
altogether. You can spot signals for this unfolding future in advances in
Artificial Intelligence, biotechnology, the many sensors of the Internet of
Things, the rise of the ‘gig economy’, and experiments with peer-to-peer
services cutting out the central platform.
One of the thought I had after visiting all these startups
is that they all want to become ‘the’ platform for xyz. Well, that’s clearly
not going to work out, there can only be so many platforms out there as the
near-to-monopoly platforms of Facebook or Google have shown. So I was wondering
how that is going to work out?
An interesting development in that perspective is the ‘blockchain’.
It is a concept that gets confused with BitCoin because it was an underlying
technical solution to implement BitCoin, but in essence is all about
distributed secure information that is not owned by a single source. The IFTF
actually made a good video explaining it in 2 minutes: http://www.iftf.org/blockchainfutureslab/
So will the future of learning
technology be more like a central platform where you can make money on the
collected data and sponsorship, or more like a distributed service (an amazon
without amazon as it were.)
Here is a collection of
screenshots I named ‘sign o’the times’. It comes without any explanation to
encourage you to make up your own mind on what the insight is from these
signals of the future:
(Slideshare link: http://www.slideshare.net/decouteb/learning-innovation-signs-of-the-times
)
Continued in the 4th and final part.
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